Breaking Down FBS Conference Races

Duke controls its own destiny in the ACC Coastal division – but if they lose, there’s chaos. (Credit Wiki)

Some FBS conference races are simple. The Pac-12 North and South, for example, have already been clinched by Stanford and Arizona State. Attempting to figure out who has a shot at winning the ACC Coastal, however, is enough to make your brain leak out of your ear.

It’s officially crunch time in college football, with the top teams in each conference making their final pushes towards the finish line. Some conferences (Big Ten, Pac-12) are all squared away. Others, such as the Big 12, Conference USA and Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), aren’t quite so simple.

The race for the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and its two slots in the SEC Championship Game isn’t 100% tidy, but it’s come down to 2 teams in each division: Mizzou and South Carolina in the East, Alabama and Auburn in the West. In the case of ‘Bama and Auburn, perhaps the purest form of determining conference supremacy takes place this Saturday: in the SEC’s greatest rivalry game, the Crimson Tide and Tigers meet in the Iron Bowl, winner-take-all for the SEC West crown.

SidelineMOB is here to guide you through the conference races in college football heading into the season’s last 2 weeks of play, and how each could break down.

American Athletic Conference (AAC)

UCF Knights, Louisville Cardinals, Cincinnati Bearcats in play.

Scenario #1: If UCF defeats either South Florida or SMU in its last 2 games, the Knights win the conference due to a victory over Louisville. UCF clinches.

Scenario #2: If UCF loses to both South Florida and SMU, the winner of the Louisville vs. Cincinnati matchup on December 5 claims the AAC crown. Louisville/Cincinnati winner clinches.

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

ACC Atlantic: Clinched by Florida State Seminoles. 

ACC Coastal: Duke, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), and North Carolina in play.

Scenario #1: Simple. If the Duke Blue Devils defeat UNC this weekend, Duke will clinch the ACC Coastal division and advance to play Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Duke clinches.

Scenario #2: Duke loses, Virginia Tech beats Virginia, and Miami beats Pittsburgh. There would then be a 5-team tie for the division, which would go to the Hokies by virtue of victories over Miami, Georgia Tech and UNC – making them the only team with a 3-1 common record. Virginia Tech clinches.

Scenario #3: Duke loses, Virginia upsets Virginia Tech, and Miami beats Pittsburgh. That creates a 4-way tie between Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech and UNC, with tiebreakers going to the Hurricanes. Miami clinches.

Scenario #4: Duke loses, Virginia Tech beats Virginia, and Pitt ousts Miami. That creates a 4-way tie between Duke, UNC, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, with the Hokies again advancing via tiebreaker. Virginia Tech clinches. 

Scenario #5: Duke loses, Virginia Tech loses, and Miami loses. This creates a 3-way tie between Georgia Tech, Duke and UNC, with the Yellow Jackets advancing by virtue of defeating both teams. Georgia Tech clinches.

Big 12 Conference

Oklahoma State, Texas, and Baylor in play.

Scenario #1: Oklahoma State defeats Oklahoma on December 7, clinches the Big 12 Championship and advances to the BCS. Oklahoma State clinches.

Scenario #2: Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, Baylor defeats TCU and Texas beats Texas Tech. Then, the winner of Baylor/Texas clinches the Big 12. Texas/Baylor winner clinches.

Scenario #3: If Oklahoma State loses and Baylor beats TCU, and Texas Tech beats Texas. Then, if Baylor beats Texas, Baylor clinches. If Texas then beats Baylor, however, Oklahoma State clinches via head-to-head victories over Baylor and Texas.

Scenario #4: If Oklahoma State loses, Texas beats Texas Tech and TCU defeats Baylor. Then, if Texas beats Baylor, Texas clinches. If Baylor beats Texas, however, Oklahoma State clinches via head-to-head victories over Baylor and Texas.

Big Ten Conference

Legends Division: Clinched by Michigan State Spartans.

Leaders Division: Clinched by Ohio State Buckeyes.

Conference USA

C-USA East: East Carolina Pirates and Marshall Thundering Herd in play.

Scenario #1: If East Carolina defeats Marshall, East Carolina clinches.

Scenario #2: If Marshall beats ECU, Marshall clinches.

C-USA West: Rice Owls, Tulane Green Wave, UTSA Roadrunners in play.

Scenario #1: If Rice defeats Tulane, Rice clinches.

Scenario #2: If Tulane beats Rice and UTSA loses to Louisiana Tech, Tulane clinches.

Scenario #3: If Tulane beats Rice and UTSA defeats Louisiana Tech, UTSA clinches by virtue of a victory over Tulane and conference tiebreakers.

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

MAC East: Bowling Green and Buffalo in play.

Scenario #1: Bowling Green defeats Buffalo. Bowling Green clinches.

Scenario #2: Buffalo defeats Bowling Green. Buffalo clinches.

MAC West: Clinched by Northern Illinois Huskies.

Mountain West Conference (MWC)

MWC West: Clinched by Fresno State Bulldogs.

MWC Mountain: Utah State Aggies and Boise State Broncos in play.

Scenario #1: If Utah State beats Wyoming, Utah State clinches.

Scenario #2: If Utah State loses and Boise State defeats New Mexico, Boise State clinches.

Scenario #3: If both teams lose, Utah State clinches.

Pac-12 Conference

Pac-12 North: Clinched by Stanford Cardinal.

Pac-12 South: Clinched by Arizona State Sun Devils.

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

SEC East: Missouri Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks in play.

Scenario #1: Missouri Tigers defeat Texas A&M. Missouri clinches.

Scenario #2: Missouri loses to Texas A&M and South Carolina defeats Clemson. South Carolina clinches, by virtue of their head-to-head victory over Mizzou.

Scenario #3: Both Missouri and South Carolina lose. Missouri clinches.

SEC West: Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn Tigers in play.

Scenario #1: Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Alabama clinches

Scenario #2: Auburn beats Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Auburn clinches.